GLOBAL WARMING
The Earth is heated by the Sun. The atmosphere that blankets the Earth is made up, for the most part, of Oxygen and Nitrogen (99%). However, there are traces of many other gasses, including water vapour, carbon dioxide, ozone, methane and nitrous oxide. These gasses are responsible, to a very great extent, for regulating our planet's surface temperature by trapping infra-red radiation which is re-radiated by the planet's surface. This is known as the "Greenhouse Effect".

This greenhouse effect is actually very important for our planet because the energy reflected/re-radiated back down from the greenhouse layer warms the Earth by about 32ºC; that means that, without the greenhouse effect, our mean global temperature would be around -18ºC!

Certain activities of industrial-age Man (mainly the burning fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas) are causing these "greenhouse gasses" to increase, resulting in a slow, but inevitable, increase in the surface temperature of our planet.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR CLIMATE?
Over the past hundred years this temperature rise has been measurable and has been recorded at about 0.6ºC. Seven of the ten warmest years in the 20th century occurred in the 1990s. Over the next hundred years it is projected that the surface temperature will rise by another 2 to 3ºC (some estimates come out as high as a 5.8ºC rise). Now, that may not seem like much. Perhaps you think that it's just the difference between a mild and a slightly warmer day. However, the startling fact is that the average surface temperature during the last ice age was only 5ºC lower than we now experience. So, I hope that you can see that a 2 to 3ºC rise will result in an extremely dramatic change in climate conditions.

The mean global temperature over the entire period has been 13.9°C (that's the zero line on the graph above). I've included the eight biggest volcanic events (magnitude 5 or greater) of this period (numbers in blue) to determine any effects these might or might not have on global temperature. The biggest three were 1,3 and 5.

HOW WILL THIS EFFECT US?
Such a rapid "global warming" will have dramatic effects on the World's eco-systems. Many species of animals and plants will not be able to adapt to these changes. The sea levels around the world will rise (by between 50 and 100 centimetres) as the warming oceans expand and the polar ice sheets melt, flooding many coastal areas. Weather systems will become more extreme with more storms, droughts and floods. Agriculture will have to change, as traditional crops become harder to grow under the changing conditions. The nightmare is that many of the World's poorest areas will find it impossible to cope with the changes. We will undoubtedly see increasing famine, pestilence and human tragedy on a most terrible scale. The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine warned in 1996 that nine of the world's ten most dangerous vector-borne diseases (including malaria, dengue fever, and yellow fever) are likely to expand or shift their ranges due to climate change. In 1996 The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine warned that nine of the world's ten most dangerous vector-borne diseases (including malaria, dengue fever, and yellow fever) are likely to expand or shift their ranges due to climate change.

WHAT CAN BE DONE?
Well, the current situation has a certain amount of momentum, which means that the warming trend is set to continue in some degree. However, it will be made worse if we continue to pump carbon dioxide and other chemicals into the atmosphere at ever increasing rates, as we are currently doing. The World's leaders have been trying to tackle this problem for some time now. The key to this is the "Kyoto Protocol", which seeks to get international leaders to agree to reducing their national greenhouse gas emissions. The main stumbling block to Kyoto is national self interest and the principal offenders are the United States (responsible for 36% of the World's greenhouse gas emissions), Canada (who have the third highest per capita emission rate in the World after the USA and Australia) and Japan (fourth).

Year 2000 Carbon Dioxide Emission Figures

Country Region	Per Capita T CO2/p.a.*
U.S.A.	22.04
Australia	17.31
Canada	16.32
Japan	10.16
E.U. (15)	9.06
E.Eur. + FSU	7.19
France	7.04
World Average	3.85
China	1.98
Brazil	1.87
India	0.95
Rest-of - World	2.09

*Tonnes of carbon dioxide emitted per capita per year

THE U.S.A. AND GLOBAL WARMING

George W. Bush

On March 28, 2001, President George W. Bush announced that the United States would not implement the Kyoto Protocol on global warming. He said he could not sign an agreement that would "harm our economy and hurt our workers." According to the European Commission, instead of cutting emissions, the Bush administration has initiated policy changes that could increase its emissions by up to 30%. An interesting and informed footnote to this political stand comes from Greenpeace, who say that the oil and gas industry donated more than $25 million to the Republican Party in the 2000 U.S. presidential race and add that BP and Esso were two of the three biggest donors according to Political Money Line, an independent website that tracks political contributions.

As a response to a request by the Bush administration in May 2001, the National Academy of Sciences (USA) has produced a report: "Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions" which is available from the National Academy Press to read online (click on the link to reach the contents page). The 268-page report, which blames human activities for climate change, was submitted to the United Nations on 4 June 2002 by the Bush administration. It concludes that "Greenhouse gases are accumulating in the Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing global mean surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise." But President Bush has staunchly stuck by his anti-Kyoto position. Of the report, his comment was that he had "read the report put out by the bureaucracy," but added that the provisions of Kyoto "would seriously damage the American economy, and I don't accept that." Errrr ..... do the words "ostrich" "head" and "sand" ring any bells? Not quite an aside, but anyone interested in US interest in the World Oil industry should view this BBC Newsnight report: The CIA and Saudi Arabia, The Bushes and the Bin Ladens

"Hi there, is that the Federal Bureau of Bureaucracy? I'd like some more of that scientific toilet paper please"

AUSTRALIA AND GLOBAL WARMING
Australian PM John Howard	Blowing a Raspberry at Kyoto John Howard, Prime Minister of Australia, announced in June 2002 that his government would not ratify the Kyoto protocol, claiming it would "cost jobs and damage our industry". Hmmmmm, now where have I heard that one before? In fact Howard announcing to the Australian Parliament that it would not be in the country’s interest to ratify without the inclusion of the U.S.A. and developing countries.	Howard and Bush. Apparently the best of buddies.